APPLICATION OF GREY MODEL AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS TO FLOOD FORECASTING1

The main focus of this study was to compare the Grey model and several artificial neural network (ANN) models for real time flood forecasting, including a comparison of the models for various lead times (ranging from one to six hours). For hydrological applications, the Grey model has the advantage that it can easily be used in forecasting without assuming that forecast storm events exhibit the same stochastic characteristics as the storm events themselves. The major advantage of an ANN in rainfall‐runoff modeling is that there is no requirement for any prior assumptions regarding the processes involved. The Grey model and three ANN models were applied to a 2,509 km² watershed in the Republic of Korea to compare the results for real time flood forecasting with from one to six hours of lead time. The fifth‐order Grey model and the ANN models with the optimal network architectures, represented by ANN1004 (34 input nodes, 21 hidden nodes, and 1 output node), ANN1010 (40 input nodes, 25 hidden nodes, and 1 output node), and ANN1004T (14 input nodes, 21 hidden nodes, and 1 output node), were adopted to evaluate the effects of time lags and differences between area mean and point rainfall. The Grey model and the ANN models, which provided reliable forecasts with one to six hours of lead time, were calibrated and their datasets validated. The results showed that the Grey model and the ANN1010 model achieved the highest level of performance in forecasting runoff for one to six lead hours. The ANN model architectures (ANN1004 and ANN1010) that used point rainfall data performed better than the model that used mean rainfall data (ANN1004T) in the real time forecasting. The selected models thus appear to be a useful tool for flood forecasting in Korea.     

EFFECTS OF INITIAL ABSTRACTION AND URBANIZATION ON ESTIMATED RUNOFF USING CN TECHNOLOGY1

ABSTRACT: Few studies have been conducted to explore the effects of initial abstraction on estimated direct runoff despite the widespread use of the curve number (CN) method in many hydrologic models to estimate direct runoff. In this study, use of a 5 percent ratio of initial abstraction (I_a) to storage (S) to estimate daily direct runoff with modified CN values for a 5 percent I_a/S value was investigated using the Long‐Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L‐THIA) geographic information system (GIS). In addition, the effects on estimated runoff of altering the hydrologic soil group due to urbanization were investigated. The L‐THIA model was applied to the Indiana Little Eagle Creek watershed with 5 percent and 20 percent I_a/S values, considering hydrologic soil group alteration due to urbanization. The results indicate that uses of a 5 percent l_a/S and modified CN values and Hydrologic Soil Group D for urbanized areas in model runs can improve long term direct runoff prediction.     

Hydrogen sulfide effects on ammonia removal by a biofilter seeded with earthworm casts

Ammonia (NH3) removal efficencies were evaluated when hydrogen sulfide (H2S) and NH3 in binary mixture gases were supplied to a ceramic biofilter seeded with earthworm (Lumbricus terrestris) casts. The effect of inlet H2S concentration and space velocity (SV) on the removal of NH3 was investigated after the acclimation of the biofilter with NH3 gas. When NH3 was singly supplied to the biofilter, NH3 removal was maintained at almost 100% until inlet NH3 concentration was increased up to 600 microL L(-1) and SV up to 330 h(-1), at which the elimination capacity of NH3 was 148 g N m(-3) h(-1). When H2S was supplied simultaneously, however, the accumulation of toxic sulfide ions showed dual effects on NH3 removal efficiencies. First, no effects were observed at inlet H2S loading below 60 g S m(-3) h(-1); however, inhibition by H2S at higher loading was observed above 60 g S m(-3) h(-1). The point at which loading achieved a maximum of more than 99% NH3 removal efficiency was 139 g N m(-3) h(-1), when inlet H2S concentration was held under 100 microL L(-1), but it dropped to 76 and 30 g N m(-3) h(-1) when the inlet H2S concentration increased to 220 and 460 microL L(-1), respectively. The critical points of inlet H2S loading that guaranteed over 99% NH3 removal were determined as 100, 100, 60, and 40 g S m(-3) h(-1) at inlet NH3 concentrations of 100, 200, 400, and 600 microL L(-1), respectively. Inlet NH3 loading had synergic effects of increasing the inhibition of inlet H2S loading on the NH3 removability of the biofilter.     

Improvement of thermal hydrolysis rate of dichloroacetic acid using alcohol

Dichloroacetic acid (DCAA) is produced during the oxidation of trichloroethylene. It is also produced in drinking water treatment as a disinfection by-product. DCAA is a problem material, because of its toxicity. The objective of this research is to find the final products and the reaction pathway of the DCAA decomposition by hydrolysis, and to increase the hydrolysis rate. The removal of both chlorine atoms in DCAA structure was achieved with hydrolysis at around 75 degrees C, and the final products were oxalic acid and glycolic acid. The reaction pathway was the production of oxalic acid and glycolic acid from two glyoxylic acid molecules by Cannizzaro reaction after the glyoxylic acid production from dechlorination of DCAA with hydrolysis. The hydrolysis rate of DCAA was increased with the use of 90% ethanol solution as solvent. The activation energy of DCAA was about 80 kJ/mol in it, while it was around 105 kJ/mol in water.     

Ignition and burning rates of segregated waste combustion in packed beds

Recent developments in national recycling and re-use programmes for municipal waste have led to segregation of an increasing proportion of waste to enhance material recovery. Several of the segregated streams contain materials that can not viably be re-used or recycled but can be used for energy recovery. In this study, the combustion of cardboard and waste wood was investigated in a small-scale packed bed reactor in order to provide fundamental data for the design/operation of moving bed furnaces. Key parameters of combustion including the ignition and burning rates were evaluated for various air flowrates and compared to the modelling results. Two successive stages of combustion were identified for both samples: the propagation of ignition front into the bed and combustion of the fuel above the ignition front. The burning rate of cardboard reached a peak of about 300 kg/m(2)h at the air flowrate of 936 kg/m(2)h and decreased at higher air flowrates. For waste wood, both the ignition and burning rates increased in the tested range of the air flowrate up to 702 kg/m(2)h, of which the values were very close to those for the cardboard. The model prediction was in good agreement with the test results for waste wood. However, the burning rate for cardboard was under-predicted due to strongly irregular shapes of the fuel.     

Photocatalytic bacterial inactivation by polyoxometalates

The photocatalytic inactivation (PCI) of Escherichia coli (Gram-negative) and Bacillus subtilis (Gram-positive) was performed using polyoxometalate (POM) as a homogeneous photocatalyst and compared with that of heterogeneous TiO₂ photocatalyst. Aqueous suspensions of the microorganisms (10⁷–10⁸ cfu ml⁻¹) and POM (or TiO₂) were irradiated with black light lamps. The POM-PCI was faster than (or comparable to) TiO₂-PCI under the experimental conditions employed in this study. The relative efficiency of POM-PCI was species-dependent. Among three POMs (H₃PW₁₂O₄₀, H₃PMo₁₂O₄₀, and H₄SiW₁₂O₄₀) tested in this study, the inactivation of E. coli was fastest with H₄SiW₁₂O₄₀ while that of B. subtilis was the most efficient with H₃PW₁₂O₄₀. Although the biocidal action of TiO₂ photocatalyst has been commonly ascribed to the role of photogenerated reactive oxygen species such as hydroxyl radicals and superoxides, the cell death mechanism with POM seems to be different from TiO₂-PCI. While TiO₂ caused the cell membrane disruption, POM did not induce the cell lysis. When methanol was added to the POM solution, not only the PCI of E. coli was enhanced (contrary to the case of TiO₂-PCI) but also the dark inactivation was observed. This was ascribed to the in situ production of formaldehyde from the oxidation of methanol. The interesting biocidal property of POM photocatalyst might be utilized as a potential disinfectant technology.     

Relationships between organic matter, black carbon and persistent organic pollutants in European background soils: Implications for sources and environmental fate

Black carbon (BC) and total organic carbon (TOC) contents of UK and Norwegian background soils were determined and their relationships with persistent organic pollutants (HCB, PAHs, PCBs, co-planar PCBs, PBDEs and PCDD/Fs) investigated by correlation and regression analyses, to assess their roles in influencing compound partitioning/retention in soils. The 52 soils used were high in TOC (range 54-460 mg/g (mean 256)), while BC only constituted 0.24-1.8% (0.88%) of the TOC. TOC was strongly correlated (p < 0.001) with HCB, PCBs, co-PCBs and PBDEs, but less so with PCDD/Fs (p < 0.05) and PAHs. TOC explained variability in soil content, as follows: HCB, 80%; PCBs, 44%; co-PCBs, 40%; PBDEs, 27%. BC also gave statistically significant correlations with PBDEs (p < 0.001), co-PCBs (p < 0.01) and PCBs, HCB, PCDD/F (p < 0.05); TOC and BC were correlated with each other (p < 0.01). Inferences are made about possible combustion-derived sources, atmospheric transport and air-surface exchange processes for these compounds.     

PAHs in background soils from Western Europe: influence of atmospheric deposition and soil organic matter

The levels and distribution of polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were determined in soil samples from background locations in the UK and Norway, to investigate their spatial distribution and the controlling environmental factors. Concentrations ranged between 42 and 11200 microg kg(-1) (geometric mean 640 microg kg(-1)) and 8.6 and 1050 microg kg(-1) (150 microg kg(-1)) dry weight in the UK and Norwegian soil, respectively. Proximity to sources and locations susceptible to high atmospheric depositional inputs resulted in higher concentrations. Statistically significant relationships were observed between PAH and total organic carbon (TOC) in the Norwegian samples. High molecular weight PAHs correlated with black carbon (BC) in UK-woodland soil. These observations support the hypothesis that TOC plays an important role in the retention of PAHs in soil and that PAHs are often combined with BC during combustion emissions. PAHs with 4 and more rings comprised approximately 90% of total PAHs in the UK soil, but only 50% in the Norwegian soil. The mixture of PAHs implied that fractionation occurred during long-range atmospheric transport and deposition. The lighter PAHs with lower K(ow) values more readily reached the most remote sites. The heavier PAHs with higher K(ow) values remained in closer proximity to sources.     

Changes in thyroid peroxidase activity in response to various chemicals

Thyroperoxidase (TPO) is a large heme-containing glycoprotein that catalyzes the transfer of iodine to thyroglobulin during thyroid hormone (TH) synthesis. Previously, we established an in vitro assay for TPO activity based on human recombinant TPO (hrTPO) stably transfected into human follicular thyroid carcinoma (FTC-238) cells. It is important to determine whether environmental chemicals can disrupt TPO activity because it is an important factor in the TH axis. In this study, we used our assay to examine the changes in TPO activity in response to various chemicals, including benzophenones (BPs), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and persistent organic pollutants (POPs). Overall, BPs, PAHs, and POPs slightly altered TPO activity at low doses, as compared with the positive controls methimazole (MMI), genistein, and 2,2',4,4'-tetrahydroxy BP. Benzophenone, benzhydrol, 3-methylchloranthracene, pyrene, benzo(k)fluoranthene, benzo(e)pyrene, perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS), perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), and heptachlor decreased TPO activity, while 2,4-dihydroxy BP, 2,2'-dihydroxy-4-methoxy BP, and dibenzo(a,h)anthracene increased TPO activity. From these data, we can predict the disruption of TPO activity by various chemicals as a sensitive TH end point. TPO activity should be considered when enacting measures to regulate environmental exposure to thyroid-disrupting chemicals.